Historical record
The Ledger
Every prediction we publish is logged here before the event — with its entry price, our probability, and the final result once it concludes.
Official Kalshi settlements · checked hourly
| ID | Date | Market | Event | Category | Position | Entry | Our prob. | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| edff6510-ba37-4b72-af20-2f9817438c0c | 2026-10-29 | Parlay: Green Bay +3.5, Jordan Love 250 yardsView on Kalshi ↗ | Carolina vs Green Bay · CAR vs GB (Oct 29) | NFL | YES | 40¢ | 65% | win |
| 392a7025-aaf7-45cd-98ff-7363f8f156e3 | 2026-10-29 | Mid game Parlay: Dallas +7.5, Cooper Flagg 25+ ptsView on Kalshi ↗ | Oklahoma City vs Dallas · OKC vs DAL (Oct 28) | NBA | YES | 45¢ | 65% | win |
| d0217765-7825-40e7-a5bf-ff31cf38e398 | 2026-10-28 | Parlay: Phila -1.5 and Maxey 20+ PointsView on Kalshi ↗ | Philadelphia vs Indiana · PHI vs IND (Oct 28) | NBA | YES | 50¢ | 75% | win |
| ca4aa0f7-ba36-46e6-a591-411e2d17d674 | 2026-10-28 | Parlay: Lakers +6.5, Doncic 25+ pts, Reeves 20+ ptsView on Kalshi ↗ | Portland vs Los Angeles L · POR vs LAL (Oct 27) | NBA | YES | 40¢ | 65% | win |
| ac61317d-da6e-4726-ac4a-7e5215413234 | 2026-10-27 | Parlay: Detroit +7.5 half, Duncan Robinson 10+ ptsView on Kalshi ↗ | Detroit vs New York · DET vs NYK (Oct 27) | NBA | YES | 50¢ | 70% | win |
| 7e92ffd6-f558-4692-a014-5a5236dd7fbd | 2026-10-26 | Player prop — Parlay: Prescott 250+ Pass, Pickens 50+ rec.View on Kalshi ↗ | Dallas vs Philadelphia · DAL vs PHI (Oct 26) | NFL | YES | 40¢ | 65% | loss |
| d8cd88b7-5ebb-4ba8-9ea2-3071bbd10900 | 2026-10-26 | Alternate spread — Parlay: KC +7.5, Mahomes 175 passingView on Kalshi ↗ | Kansas City vs Seattle · KC vs SEA (Oct 25) | NFL | YES | 52¢ | 70% | loss |
| 1d39830b-7f19-47be-bb46-949a73122fd3 | 2026-10-25 | Alternate spread — Green Bay +7.5View on Kalshi ↗ | Green Bay vs Detroit · GB vs DET (Oct 25) | NFL | YES | 63¢ | 75% | win |
| 66b69e5e-0444-45f7-83cf-26ebdab29fd1 | 2026-10-25 | Parlay: Bengals +3.5, Burrow over 225 passingView on Kalshi ↗ | Cincinnati vs Baltimore · CIN vs BAL (Oct 25) | NFL | YES | 55¢ | 70% | win |
| 925a82bd-ee18-489c-9f0c-3ec2af6b3da9 | 2026-10-25 | Team to Win — Pittsburgh wins — PittsburghView on Kalshi ↗ | Pittsburgh vs New Orleans · PIT vs NO (Oct 25) | NFL | YES | 60¢ | 75% | win |
| 2a04b6ed-2fd7-4207-83b4-e27ee26709e1 | 2026-10-24 | Alternate spread — Phila -1.5 at halfView on Kalshi ↗ | Milwaukee vs Philadelphia · MIL vs PHI (Oct 24) | NBA | YES | 63¢ | 80% | win |
| b30eeca9-1caa-498c-8d3b-59f20307aa67 | 2026-10-24 | Alternate spread — Cleveland -1.5 at halfView on Kalshi ↗ | Brooklyn vs Cleveland · BKN vs CLE (Oct 24) | NBA | YES | 62¢ | 75% | win |
| de9f78db-ffe1-4d09-bcdd-68535f060dea | 2026-10-24 | Alternate spread — Brewers +1.5View on Kalshi ↗ | Game 2: Tampa Bay vs Milwaukee · TB vs MIL (Oct 24) | MLB | YES | 64¢ | 75% | win |
| 87613c24-26c6-44ce-b725-a8f51ed5f3ff | 2026-10-24 | Parlay: SMU -6.5, over 49.5 totalView on Kalshi ↗ | California vs SMU · CAL vs SMU (Oct 23) | College Football | YES | 40¢ | 60% | win |
| 8f50a8f2-0120-4c34-90ad-045578c18f0e | 2026-10-24 | Alternate spread — Tennessee +7.5View on Kalshi ↗ | Tennessee vs South Carolina · TENN vs SCAR (Oct 23) | College Football | YES | 69¢ | 85% | win |
| 4d86140f-bf1e-499f-acf6-722d0c7263f3 | 2026-10-23 | Team to Win — Parlay: No Run First Inning, Brewers MLView on Kalshi ↗ | Game 1: Tampa Bay vs Milwaukee · TB vs MIL (Oct 23) | MLB | YES | 35¢ | 60% | loss |
| 91af1cbf-c388-4753-adad-a1d7e239f0dd | 2026-10-23 | Team to Win — Oklahoma City wins — Oklahoma CityView on Kalshi ↗ | Denver vs Oklahoma City · DEN vs OKC (Oct 22) | NBA | YES | 60¢ | 80% | win |
| 665038b3-2425-48b6-a2c8-c0cef867ba79 | 2026-10-22 | BTC price up in next 15 mins? — Target Price: $81,404.92View on Kalshi ↗ | BTC 15 min · $81,404.92 target · Oct 22 - 5:30PM EDT to 5:45PM EDT | BTC 15 | NO | 60¢ | 85% | win |
| c5fd9b11-f9fd-4d74-9820-db879db0735e | 2026-10-22 | Chicago +3.5View on Kalshi ↗ | New England vs Chicago · NE vs CHI (Oct 22) | NFL | YES | 68¢ | 80% | win |
| 21f8c623-bcb7-4e78-9135-c011e0a1c190 | 2026-10-22 | Parlay: Lakers -2.5, over Total 219.5View on Kalshi ↗ | Golden State vs Los Angeles L · GSW vs LAL (Oct 21) | NBA | YES | 50¢ | 75% | win |
| 2f6b6478-f7b5-487a-bd66-0850edff5223 | 2026-10-20 | Detroit wins — DetroitView on Kalshi ↗ | Boston vs Detroit · BOS vs DET (Oct 20) | NBA | YES | 70¢ | 90% | win |
| 65afa9a9-dd52-408c-ae2c-c2671071f712 | 2026-10-20 | San Francisco wins — San FranciscoView on Kalshi ↗ | WAS Commanders vs SF 49ers · WAS vs SF (Oct 19) | NFL | YES | 75¢ | 85% | win |
| 18ef6311-0aa0-44e5-a1a2-c62adca1896a | 2026-10-19 | Green Bay wins — Green BayView on Kalshi ↗ | DAL Cowboys vs GB Packers · DAL vs GB (Oct 18) | NFL | YES | 45¢ | 60% | win |
| 2b1d3ca3-ae06-44d1-bce8-57f34c4f464c | 2026-10-18 | Kansas City wins — Kansas CityView on Kalshi ↗ | LA Chargers vs KC Chiefs · LAC vs KC (Oct 18) | NFL | YES | 68¢ | 80% | win |
| 5c0b5c81-7546-42b5-a9a5-5bd4733b0986 | 2026-10-18 | New York G wins — New York GView on Kalshi ↗ | NOLA Saints vs NY Giants · NO vs NYG (Oct 18) | NFL | YES | 60¢ | 75% | loss |
| 8e661f41-d958-4c6d-b6cb-5fa153ace875 | 2026-10-18 | Carolina wins — CarolinaView on Kalshi ↗ | CAR Panthers vs PHI Eagles · CAR vs PHI (Oct 18) | NFL | YES | 65¢ | 80% | win |
| a0e78cb5-a019-42e3-bf30-f7b6030e2b10 | 2026-10-18 | Indianapolis wins — IndianapolisView on Kalshi ↗ | TEN Titans vs IND Colts · TEN vs IND (Oct 18) | NFL | YES | 71¢ | 90% | loss |
| 49d6ecf6-b7c8-4207-95b1-50b4b796771e | 2026-10-17 | Tennessee wins — TennesseeView on Kalshi ↗ | Alabama vs Tennessee · ALA vs TENN (Oct 17) | College Football | YES | 52¢ | 65% | win |
| 8f2c0a6f-534c-409d-a55b-3b53596588d0 | 2026-10-17 | Northwestern wins — NorthwesternView on Kalshi ↗ | Northwestern vs Michigan St. · NW vs MSU (Oct 16) | College Football | YES | 60¢ | 75% | win |
| d49a069b-20e4-4cd8-89b4-cb5497caf414 | 2026-10-17 | BTC price up in next 15 mins? — Target Price: $81,509.07View on Kalshi ↗ | BTC 15 min · $81,509.07 target · Oct 17 - 3:00AM EDT to 3:15AM EDT | BTC 15 | YES | 57¢ | 70% | win |
| 499e1abe-0dbe-4623-851f-7a2aaaf44c8e | 2026-10-17 | Tampa Bay wins — Tampa BayView on Kalshi ↗ | Game 4: Tampa Bay vs Cleveland · TB vs CLE (Oct 17) | MLB | YES | 51¢ | 75% | win |